When I posted
Archive for the 'Foreign Policy' Category
This piece has been languishing since January of this year. With the addition of some new information last month, it’s time to unburden myself and clear my hard drive.
I’ve been waiting a very long time to post this – there is now enough information to verify that Iran was attacked by Israel and [...]
In a generally insightful and timely article appearing in Slate, journalist and defense policy expert Fred Kaplan debunks “the nutty theory that Iranian nukes are a good thing.” He echoes some of the arguments I’ve offered over the several years this blog has been in existence. Kaplan, however, errs later in his article [...]
I’m back, after a long hiatus. There are a number of reasons for the gap in my postings – some political, some personal. On the political front, though I’ve considered commenting on the Obama Administration’s foreign policy at various times, I didn’t really have anything to add beyond what readers could find elsewhere. [...]
I just came across this article by geologist Jeffrey Park in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Park says that the seismic data indicate the latest North Korean test was another fizzle, concluding the yield was “likely 4 kilotons or smaller”.
According to the author bio in the sidebar, Park seems to be qualified to [...]
Back in October 2006, I speculated (accurately) that North Korea’s nuke test was a “fizzle”. Yesterday, North Korea (aka the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea – DPRK) conducted another test, this time achieving a yield of aproximately 20 kilotons. As I said in the 2006 article:
North Korea has repeatedly shown itself to be [...]
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) published a study 14 March 2009 laying out an Israeli attack scenario against Iranian nuclear sites. It is very similar to my Scenario 1 from 12 February 2007, which describes a direct strike on the key Iranian nuke sites.
There are some differences between the CSIS and [...]
Since my last posting in January, the political situation in Israel has clarified: 2nd place finisher Likud and party leader Benjamin Netanyahu are now in charge. There have been some other changes as well. True to Obama’s campaign statements indicating he intended to limit/reduce/eliminate US ballistic missile defense programs, his administration is planning [...]
On 10 January, the New York Times posted U.S. Rejected Aid for Israeli Raid on Iranian Nuclear Site, which claims that the U.S. refused to supply Israel with advanced bunker busters, refueling aircraft, or to allow overflights of Iraq for an attack on Iran. Nothing in this article should surprise readers of this blog. [...]
Israel is now several days in to a major operation intended to attrition Hamas and degrade its ability to launch indiscriminate rocket attacks against Israeli civilians. In November, just before Obama won, I predicted that the Kadima-led Israeli government would launch an attack on Iran in the month before the February 10 parliamentary elections. [...]
There is ample evidence that the Israeli government and Israelis in general believe that an Obama administration will be much more inclined toward Israel’s enemies than any previous U.S. administration. There is also ample evidence that the Israeli government and the Bush administration have major disagreements over the imminence of the Iranian threat. [...]
It is four days before the general election and an Obama victory appears all but certain. One issue that has arisen over the past few days derives from comments by running mate Joe Biden that were taped at a private event. Biden said that Obama would be “tested” by some sort of foreign [...]
Although it has been an interesting political season, even the prospect of an Obama-Hillary / Hillary-Obama shotgun wedding officiated by Howard Dean has been insufficient to motivate me to blog. However, a couple of recent events merit some commentary.
The first was from early last month when Director of National Intelligence Michael McConnell, in testimony [...]
I hadn’t planned to comment on the 2007 National Intelligence Estimate – others with much better credentials than I have done so (notably John Bolton in the Washington Post). However, none of them offered the best refutation, although Henry Kissinger in a 13 December editorial came close. Kissinger pointed out that the “Key [...]
I’m back after a rather long hiatus. I spent the summer on involuntary vacation: I was laid off from my job at Crane. During my layoff I didn’t feel much like writing, though I did step up my exercise regimen and lost some weight. After I got a new position at Crane [...]
A little over a month ago, Iran announced it could enrich uranium on an “industrial scale”. In short order, IAEA inspectors were shown 8 cascades, amounting to 1,312 centrifuges, operating within the bowels of the subterranean Natanz enrichment facility. Yesterday, the New York Times reported, Atomic Agency Concludes Iran is Stepping Up Nuclear [...]
On 23 March 2004, a buddy of mine sent me Iraq One Year Later by Republican Representative Ron Paul of Texas. He wanted to know what I thought of it. I sent him back a response in the form of my comments interlineated with Paul’s article. Now that Paul is a candidate [...]
In Preemptive war against Iran (7 March 2005), I wrote:
From the perspective of the mullahs, Western culture is a mortal threat. Against the freedom, affluence, and vitality of the West, the mullahs can only offer a decadent medievalism that was on the way out 500 years ago. The mullahs realize that without nukes, Iran will [...]
The Daily Telegraph reports Israel seeks all clear for Iran air strike. As I demonstrated in Gaming an Israeli conventional strike on Iran: Scenario 1 and Gaming an Israeli conventional strike on Iran: Scenario 2, a direct attack, flying through Iraqi airspace, is relatively easy for the Israeli Air Force to accomplish but an [...]
In the FT Interview: Mohamed ElBaradei, the redoubtable Nobel Peace Prize winner states two mutually contradictory positions. The first is that Iran is 5 to 10 years away from nukes. The second is that Iran may have its first nukes next year. The Financial Times interviewer, Daniel Dombey, tries to clarify ElBaradei’s [...]