The Daily Telegraph reports Israel seeks all clear for Iran air strike. As I demonstrated in Gaming an Israeli conventional strike on Iran: Scenario 1 and Gaming an Israeli conventional strike on Iran: Scenario 2, a direct attack, flying through Iraqi airspace, is relatively easy for the Israeli Air Force to accomplish but an [...]
In the FT Interview: Mohamed ElBaradei, the redoubtable Nobel Peace Prize winner states two mutually contradictory positions. The first is that Iran is 5 to 10 years away from nukes. The second is that Iran may have its first nukes next year. The Financial Times interviewer, Daniel Dombey, tries to clarify ElBaradei’s [...]
Picking up where I left off in Gaming an Israeli conventional strike on Iran: Scenario 1, I set up and ran Scenario 2 – the no overflight scenario. It became immediately apparent that 5 KC-707 tankers was an insufficient number for a one-shot strike. There is no problem putting all 25 F-15I’s on [...]
At the conclusion of my previous post, I said I was going to analyze Israeli capabilities for carrying out a conventional strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities because I had come around to the view that “Israel wouldn’t allow a little thing like U.S. disapproval to prevent it from attacking.”
Now that Iran has begun or is [...]
In my article, MAD with a vengeance (MADWAV), I argued that if Iran acquires nuclear weapons, Israel should announce a modified version of the MAD doctrine: in the event Iran hits Israel with nuclear weapons, Israel will not limit its retaliatory strike to Iran but will target other hostile Muslim states as well, even if [...]
I caught a news item on the local NPR affiliate a couple of days ago about a meeting between Indiana 9th District Representative Baron Hill (D) and members of the Bloomington Peace Action Coalition. Hill refused to accept their call for an immediate pullout from Iraq. The BPAC folks were livid - one [...]
This article in Slate by Jacob Weisberg starts off good, talking about the “two clocks” ticking off the time remaining until Iran has nukes and until the theocracy falls.
It rapidly deteriorates:
The most common estimates of the time needed for Iran to get enough fissile material and assemble a bomb range from three to eight [...]