The Hager File: the finale
With the announcement over the weekend that Senator Evan Bayh is dropping out of the 2008 Presidential race, I can now close the books on The Hager File. As I discussed in that post, I made a series of 8 predictions in 2004. The final result was 5 correct and 3 wrong. The 3 wrong predictions were that the U.S. would attack Iran on 25 June 2006 plus or minus 28 days, Evan Bayh would win the Democratic nomination for President in 2008, and that he would win the general election.
It was clear to me back in 2004 that a DLC member was going to be the Democratic candidate in 2008 because the party had shifted too far to the left with Kerry to be successful. The Democrats needed to move back to something approximating the center and Bayh seemed to me the most electable given Hillary’s probable negatives. With Bayh out of the race, it appears that the DLC candidate will be Hillary Clinton, though Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack’s name has gotten bandied about recently. I assume that’s why Bayh dropped out: Hillary had garnered all of the DLC support.
Too bad. I could envision scenarios where I would vote for Bayh. I can’t come up with any in which I would vote for Hillary. My nightmare scenario: McCain is the GOP nominee running against Hillary. Then I swallow hard and vote for McCain.
The prediction I’m really sorry to have been wrong about was attacking Iran. I’ve begun to wonder if I’ve misjudged Bush – I voted for him largely because I expected that he would attack. Now I fear that, to paraphrase Charles Krauthammer, the President is becoming bogged down in diplomacy and will not take action. I’ll have more to say on the subject of Iran in a future post. As a preview, I’ll say that it appears Israel is on its own and the only option having any likelihood of preventing a nuclear exchange with Iran is for Israel to adopt a policy I call “M.A.D. with a vengeance”.